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基金經理觀點
> 正文
友邦保险市场份额增长较快,短期超跌
4/16/2024 2:02:17 PM
友邦保险(01299.HK)股價在過去幾個月中下跌超過23%(相對於恒生指數-1%),行內分析員认为这种表現只是一種過度反應,反映市場對公司缺乏股票回購計劃或中期資本管理情況的失望,以及對其國內增長戰略看法不统一。從長期來看,当前股价水平的風險回報相當有吸引力,股票的交易價值為1.7倍2024E市賬率 (P/B),股息收益率為3.3%。
友邦集團及其子公司是泛亞洲人壽保險最大的上市集團,主要為企業客戶提供人壽保險、信用保險、員工福利和養老金服務。對於個人而言,友邦提供基本人壽保險以及儲蓄、投資和退休產品。
友邦業務擴展至香港(包括澳門;約40%的銷售額)、中国内陆(近20%)、泰國(超過10%)、新加坡(包括汶萊;約10%)、馬來西亞(約5%)以及其他市場(約15%)和集團企業中心。公司通過當地代理商、合作夥伴和員工網絡,為超過3900萬位保單持有人和超過1600萬個參與團體保險計劃成員提供服務。公司
中國和印度市場的增長
在國內,預計將有更高的首年標準保費(APE)增長,可抵消一部份成本壓力,将推動更高的壽險業新商品業務價值(NBV)增長。中國FY24E NBV 將增長60%,由57% APE增長推動,利潤率在50%左右。另一方面,在印度市場,友邦與塔塔集團在印度合資企業(TATA AIA)在FY23中獲取近980萬美元APE,超過友邦在新加坡和馬來西亞業務規模。據管理層評論,TATA AIA正達到盈虧平衡點,即将為集團新業務價值增長做出貢獻。公司對印度業務運營有進一步披露(例如利潤率等)都會成為股票上行催化劑。
具有強勁現金流
友邦自由盈餘額(Free Surplus)在去年年底約為160億美元,基礎自由盈餘 (Underlying free surplus) 為60億美元。此自由盈餘將在2年內将增長到200億美元。與當前市值約820億美元相比,這是一個非常有價值的部分。憑強大償付能力,公司肯定有增加股票回購或向股東提供更高股息支付選擇。這些都是當前股票價值潛在上行空間。
目前,約有34位友邦股票分析師集中研究公司且全部都建議買進。雖然過去18個月中位數目標價沒太大變化(約為90-100港元),但股票下跌近25%,很可能是大型機構賣出壓力所导致的過度反應。公司基本價值沒什改變,預測隱含價值約為每股45港元,加上新業務價值預測約每股3.0和11倍的交易倍數,友邦股價可輕易超過其基本價值78港元/股(行內估計每股92港元)。對投資者來說,目前可考慮友邦作為一個長線買入機會。
黃偉棠
時富時富金融研究部
於香港和美國金融服務業擁有超過20年豐富經驗,擅長於投資、基金管理、資產管理、股票研究等多個範疇。持有美國加州柏克萊大學和香港大學多個碩士及學士學位、亦為註冊會計師 (CPA)、特許金融分析師(CFA),以及大學高級講師。
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