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基金經理觀點
> 正文
華晨中國業績持續增長,目標價9.96港元
5/31/2024 3:32:46 PM
華晨中國(01114.HK)是一家制造及銷售汽車零部件的大型企業集團,擁有華晨雷諾、華晨東亞汽車金融、華晨寶馬三大整車生產線及四條發動機生產線。
根據公司最新財務報告,由於傳統化石燃料車零部件的需求持續下跌,而電動及混合動力車需求不斷上升,2023年公司實現營收11.21億元(人民幣,下同),同比減少0.82%;毛利2.88億元,同比上升22.5%,毛利率也由20.8%上升至25.7%。值得注意的是其聯營公司華晨寶馬同期為華晨中國帶來了77.97億元的業績,淨利潤77.36億元。聯營公司的營收是華晨中國營收的約7倍,凸顯出華晨中國的業務重心依舊是製造及銷售寶馬汽車和其零部件, 是公司業績的核心貢獻者。相信隨著中國經濟的穩步恢復增長,華晨寶馬的銷量也會因此得到保障。
業務多元化發展
華晨中國作為寶馬集團在中國的合作方,不僅有寶馬的強大品牌支撐,也為公司帶來技術和設計的支援,提升了其市場競爭力,特別是在新能源汽車領域上。隨著寶馬新能源汽車系列的推出,華晨寶馬的銷售量也是穩步上升,2023年電動車銷售量同比增長110.6%。值得一提的是華晨寶馬出口汽車數量僅佔比4.8%,受歐美提升新能源汽車關稅的影響較小。此外,華晨中國通過寧波裕民、綿陽里安、華晨動力、華晨東等附屬公司覆蓋零部件製造及華晨東亞汽車金融服務,形成完整的產業鏈佈局, 不僅可以分散公司的風險,也有利於資源整合,提高整體營運效率。
機遇與挑戰共存
據中國國家企業信用信息公示系統顯示,華晨雷諾金杯汽車有限公司出現工商變更,股東新增華晨中國等。重整後,此前脫離華晨中國控制的華晨雷諾將重新回歸,財務業績也將計入華晨中國。法院於2023年批准華晨雷諾重整計畫,此舉雖然帶來短期財務壓力,卻為華晨中國提供了長期結構優化的機遇。公司需要依靠華晨寶馬的優勢,尤其在亞洲、歐洲等市場,開拓華晨雷諾的定位,發揮品牌優勢,結合新能源及輕型車需求,開拓新市場。
量化數據顯示強勁升勢
根據LSEG Workspace的動量模型(Momentum Model)顯示,華晨中國在長線及中線的表現比95%的港股優勝。動量模型是傳統量化因子模型的其中一個重要因子,主要原理是把所有股票按照其過往一段時間的股價表現排序,表現強勁的股票在往後一段時間一般會繼續保持其表現。
當然,要構成市場中性(market neutral)的投資組合,理論上要買入表現強的股票及賣空表現差的股票,但華晨中國的表現對於大市的敏感度(beta) 不高,用90日的交易數據計算出來的beta 只有0.3,所以看好華晨中國升勢會持續的投資者可以考慮買入。華晨中國10日的波動率(volatility)為16.66%,建議投資者可以9.96 港元作為三個月的獲利目標價。
馬家俊博士
時富量化金融董事總經理
從事金融科技業多年,是香港首批量化投資策略師及量化投資組合經理,重點研究量化投資策略在金融市場上的應用,涵蓋多種不同資產類別。馬博士於香港多間大學任教量化/計量金融及風險管理學,是特許金融分析師 (CFA)、專業風險管理師 (PRM)、精算師學會之專業會員 (ASA), 特許工程師 (CEng)等。
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