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With effective from 24 Jun 2024, physical scrip deposited to account can only be sold after 10 working days for verification.
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基金經理觀點
> 正文
新東方業務蓬勃發展,短期超跌
5/10/2024 10:44:39 AM
新東方(09901.HK)是中國領先的教育服務機構,提供外語培訓、美國、中國和英聯邦國家入學和評估考試準備課程,以及中小學教育服務和教育軟件開發等。
近期股價下挫原因
公司第三季業績表現遜於預期,是公司長期以來第一個“未達預期”之季度,令市場失望。其次,公司表明第四季增速放緩將較預期為快,營收指引增長只約34-37%,與第三季相比,放緩超過30個百分點,(預期放緩只約25個百分點)。此外,管理層加速擴張和增加相關投資(如招聘更多教師,為員工提供更多年終獎金等),以及East Buy本季度盈利轉虧,導致公司盈利率(Operating Profit Margin)出現兩年來的首次年同比下降等,也是近期股價下挫的原因。
公司季報公告
管理層預計來年將保持相若的擴張速度,並對營收增長和利潤增長保持樂觀。預計2024年營收將同比增長約45%(教育相關收入則同比增長42%)。
現行優勢條件
公司正利用其優勢條件和穩定的政治及政策背景,在未來幾年有望繼續創造紀錄性利潤。公司當前股價也不算昂貴,前瞻市盈率(forward P/E)為20倍,而市場則普遍認為其非周期性、高度可見和複利收益能力被低估了。根據預測,公司每股收益年複合增長率將超過35%,市盈率估值預計將可在兩年內迅速下降到大約10倍,進而創造股價上行空間。
積極擴展非學術領域,教育業務蓬勃發展
另外,在教育管理條例草案發布後,公司積極佈局,增加非學術培訓比例,推動行業擴張。截至2024年2月,新東方補習班已達到911家(同比增長28%)。考慮股權激勵和股權比例,並排除其他非經常性收益,估計淨利潤率(Net Profit Margin)約為11%。雖然第三季新增163家補習班,但新東方在快速擴張的同時仍保持高盈利能力,表現卓越。
基於分類加總估值法(sum of the parts),假設淨現金持股折扣23%,新業務目標以2024年市盈率28倍計(高於同業平均水平,全球教育同業平均前瞻性為13倍2024年市盈率),加上其持有56% East Buy股權,估值折扣為50%,總體公司目標價格約為76.5港元。投資者可考慮趁此機會作短線投資。
黃偉棠
時富時富金融研究部
於香港和美國金融服務業擁有超過20年豐富經驗,擅長於投資、基金管理、資產管理、股票研究等多個範疇。持有美國加州柏克萊大學和香港大學多個碩士及學士學位、亦為註冊會計師 (CPA)、特許金融分析師(CFA),以及大學高級講師。
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